See on TradingView
Open the Long-Term Trend & Valuation Model on TradingView. Invite-only.
Overview
This invite-only tool is a two-layer framework designed to simplify long-horizon decision-making:- Valuation Engine - measures how extended price is relative to its own regime. Outputs a single oscillator centered on zero, bounded by configurable overbought / oversold thresholds.
- Trend Model - aggregates several independent long-term subsystems into a composite strength score, mapped to a long / cash / short stance.
Valuation Engine
The valuation oscillator is a weighted blend of six standardized components. Each component measures a different facet of “extension” relative to the asset’s own historical regime, then gets normalized so that all signals sit on the same scale before they’re combined.How it is built
Reading the oscillator
Configurable inputs
Threshold modes
- Fixed thresholds - default ±
1.5, configurable. - Dynamic (
k · σ) - thresholds becomemean ± k · σover a rolling window (default100bars,k = 1.5). Optionally center at zero to use±k · σregardless of mean drift.
Built-in summary table
A right-corner summary table prints each component’s current z-score plus a 🟢 / 🔴 status emoji, the Final Score, and the overall valuation emoji. Toggle on/off via Show Summary Table. The table works in light or dark mode (controlled by the Light or Dark Mode input).Trend Model
The trend layer combines seven independent long-term subsystems. Each subsystem produces its own long / short / neutral vote on the prevailing regime, and the votes are averaged into a single composite score in the range[-1, +1].
The subsystems are deliberately diverse - each looks at trend from a
different mathematical lens (price-anchor alignment, persistence checks,
macro regime confirmation, higher-timeframe overlays, etc.). You can
toggle any subsystem on or off independently.
Subsystem toggles
Disabling a subsystem reweights the composite among the remaining
active subsystems - so you can trim the model down to only the lenses
you trust without throwing the score off scale.
Interpretation
A colored signal line is plotted on the price chart (overlay),
optional bar coloring is available, and a right-corner table reports
the current strength (%), rate of change, and position state.
Configurable inputs
How to Use
Cycle framing
Read valuation and trend as a 2×2 matrix - the combination tells you what stage of the cycle the asset is in.Workflow examples
- Regime allocation - increase exposure when trend is Long and valuation is rising; reduce when trend is Short and valuation is falling.
- Signal gating - only run shorter-term entry systems in the composite trend’s direction.
- Sizing overlay - scale smaller near upper-band stretches; scale larger after valuation resets near zero.
- DCA context - accumulate while valuation is negative but stabilizing (slope flattening), not while it’s still falling.
- Cross-asset rotation - compare valuations across multiple assets on the daily timeframe and rotate to where conditions are most favorable.
Alerts
Built-in alert conditions:Valuation alerts
Trend alerts
Strengths
- Separates cycle context from trend stance - two questions, two answers, no conflation.
- Multi-component voting - both layers use diverse subsystems so no single component can drag the model off course.
- Volatility-aware scaling - keeps “extreme” meaningful across changing regimes.
- Per-component toggles + weights - you can tune the model to your preferred lenses without rewriting the script.
- Clear visuals and alerts - encourages long-horizon discipline rather than minute-to-minute reactivity.
Final Notes
The Long-Term Trend & Valuation Model is not designed to catch every
swing. It is built to keep you aligned with the dominant trend, help
manage risk around cycle extremes, and provide a consistent language
for allocation decisions across timeframes and assets.